Also, the doctors reported, an extensive battery of pulmonary function tests failed to produce the kinds of findings that are characteristic of an asthmatic. e. none of the above, b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment, Smith's research concerning violence in hockey showed that An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. Pity, the evidence went up in smoke. The simplicity test, as explained here, is related to the makes-sense test. And whatever happened to Satcom III, the telecommunications satellite that some say almost crippled the satellite insurance industry? This helps to explain why so-called anecdotal evidence can be problematic. Why does the speaker emphasize silence? Ban alcoholic beverages at sporting events. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. Firefighters doused the flaming Molotov cocktail and then detained the man . Applying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? [6] The probability of two consecutive years of success is no higher than .50 times .50, or .25. For explanatory arguments there are two main parts to the total evidence condition: the outcome must be sufficiently improbable and the explanation must be sufficiently probable. General explanationssuch as Newtonian mechanics applies to the motion of celestial bodies or Vitamin C helps prevent coldsdo not lend themselves to the question about comparative frequencies because they are general. Blue jay reproduction rates were measured in both habitats before and after the treatment. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. For the Greek might count anything as grave misfortune, from a financial reversal to the death of an aged parent. As with the outcome, the concern here is also with prior epistemic probabilityin this case, the probability that you would assess to the explanation prior to your making any judgment about the observable outcome. Two Alternative Explanations to Bear in Mind. The more surprising the outcome would be, the lower the prior probability and the stronger the logic of the argument. So, not only is the prior probability of magic negligible, but it is far lower than that of the leading alternative, illusion. This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. This point is not lost on investment companies. Often, however, the chronological order is reversed; the observable outcome is observed, then the explanation fashioned in response to it. So the logic of the burglar argument is shown to be weak. Echinacea has no effect on the duration and severity of the symptoms of the common cold. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. An argument whose correct form, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: An explanation that can apply to a wide range of observable outcomes. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. Which of the following psychologists was a behaviorist? A theory with great explanatory power makes few assumptions, has significant predictive power and helps to reduce uncertainty in a precise and accurate way. This means that an unusually good performance would typically be followed by a poorer onereturning downward to the meanand that an unusually bad performance would typically be followed by a better oneagain returning to the mean, but this time upward. To return to an earlier case, no lesser a light than Thomas Jefferson, when he heard the reports of meteorites from Harvard and Brown professors, said, I would rather believe that the Yankee professors lied than that stones fall from the heavens. This was probably reasonable as an initial reactionthough, in this case, the high standards were eventually met. Again, if you include the observations actually made in December of 1758, the probability would be very highthey saw it! Hierarchical organization. For example, we can ask about the frequency of singular explanationshow frequently butlers leave their fingerprints on candlesticks or how frequently marines have tattoosbut it isnt helpful, probably not even meaningful, to ask about the frequency with which Newtonian mechanics is true. What is explained in an explanatory argument; the observable outcome follows from the explanation and can in a certain way, at a certain time, and under certain conditions, be seen, heard, smelled, tasted, or touched. Theories are hypotheses that have been proved. An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. The magazine reporting it is reliable, and there is no reason to distrust it in this case. Its a favorite of macabre schoolchildren. Wilhelm Wundt, Sigmund Freud, Noam Chomsky. More precisely, the condition is that the prior probability of the observable outcome must be sufficiently low. Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. Sit down before fact as a little child, be prepared to give up every preconceived notion, follow humbly wherever and to whatever abysses nature leads or you shall learn nothing. Males exhibit higher levels of aggression than females. In a short paragraph, identify the explanation, discuss why it may be unfalsifiable, and explain how this results in a problem with the first part of the total evidence condition. For, as researchers have shown, we have a natural tendencytermed a confirmation biasto look for outcomes that support our preferred explanation rather than those that might falsify the alternativesto look, for example, for worshippers who escaped rather than thinking also about those who drowned. Add a moving part to the machine, and the probability that every part will work drops dramatically. Because the ideas of creationism cannot be tested through experiment and observation. a. situational causes As we have seen, explanations that make good sense are those for which we have an adequate conceptual frameworkfor which we have a reasonably good account of the causal mechanisms involved. An experiment that makes it possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses. Where in the tropics could an English army doctor have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded? She is a ________. Healthy elderly people who rated their health as poor were two to six times more likely to die within the next four years than those who said their health was excellent. Bottom Line, citing the work of Professor Ellen Idler of Rutgers University. 0&1 First American psychologist. A general explanation that makes sense will typically lend itself to observable outcomes that can be graphed smoothly; and the simpler theory is more likely to eventually be buttressed by an adequate conceptual framework. 1 Definitions In this instrument: chronic renal failure means: (a) having a glomerular filtration rate of less than 15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 for a period of at least 3 months; or (b) a need for renal replacement therapy (dialysis or transplantation) for treatment of complications of decreased glomerular filtration rate Rabinoffs paper asserted that there was a correlation between TM practitioners desiring warmer weather on one evening and the occurrence of unusually warm weather the following day. Also termed a theory or an explanatory hypothesis. It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. When desperately needed money arrives mysteriously in the mail, that is support for Romans 8:28. Although there is no formula for deciding on the improbability of the outcome, there are some helpful strategies that you can follow in making your decision. This is the place to ask about coincidence as an alternative explanation. In practice, it is usually easy to tell the difference between an explanatory argument and a deductive argument. For example, our hypothesis in this case could be that the toast didn't toast because the electrical outlet is broken. Randomly selected students whom teachers believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better. (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. These were huge, precise patterns of bent stalks of wheat, corn, and barley that lent themselves to spectacular aerial photographs. Personal Finance Semester 1 Test - Mrs. Ellio, John Lund, Paul S. Vickery, P. Scott Corbett, Todd Pfannestiel, Volker Janssen, The Language of Composition: Reading, Writing, Rhetoric, Lawrence Scanlon, Renee H. Shea, Robin Dissin Aufses, Eric Hinderaker, James A. Henretta, Rebecca Edwards, Robert O. Self. observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. The lights in this old house keep flickering. Thousands of lives are going to be wrecked over this. At least one source of income was going to be wrecked. Suppose I am encouraging you in your fledgling acting career and argue, You are so talented that all the critics who dont praise you are just jealous. D. It excludes the presumption of Epistemic probability, as explained in Chapter 9, refers to the probability of the statements truth given all relevant available evidence. 1. b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players Explanatory/ Causal /Bivariate Hypothesis. We are the only two people in this apartment. Which of the following exemplifies the unconditional positive regard component of client-centered therapy? All of these. Punishing student pilots when they perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than rewarding them when they perform well. The term prior, in this case, means that the probability calculation must be done prior to your making any judgment about the explanation itself and prior to your making any observations pertinent to the observable outcome. No more mice. In Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the ________ include food, water, and shelter. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . This is what happened with Torricellis hypothesis. If the man were a Marine sergeant, then he would have a maritime tattoo, a military carriage, regulation side-whiskers, and an air of command. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. A. Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. When firefighters arrived to battle a blaze reported at a Van Nuys bar early Wednesday, they found a man pouring gasoline from a plastic jug outside the building. One good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Is this outcome so vague that it might well be true anyway? I do take a lot of vitamin C over the winter and get only one or two colds, though I usually get three or four. The correct form for an explanatory argument, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise, often implicit, states that the explanation enables you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. (The Vitamin C example is similar; one reason that researchers have not worked harder at collecting evidence for the theory is because it is unclear how it would work. A. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? In the steps of the scientific method, what is the process where a scientist writes down tentative explanations or statements about what he/she expects might happen under certain conditions? Is the explanation falsifiable? As a consequence of organisms' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted to their environments. But the second letter, using the same observable outcome, offers an alternative explanationnamely, that a plumber visited, left the pipe, then surreptitiously retrieved it. Suppose the phone rings and you pick it up, only to hear the click of someones hanging up on the other end. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that a. assertive behavior. Examine the list of all known species of birds and determine if any cannot fly. Not too badly, if we compare the frequencies of each. 2. If an explanation does already exist, then the outcome has a high prior probability and the argument is logically weak. But the editors at. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. For general explanations, the simplest one normally predicts the smoothest curve. a. with the intent to harm physically. [If competition for food among finches on Galapagos is the main cause of extremes in beak sizes, then there are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions of scarcity the finches with extremes survive best. It is an argument. But it is possible to specify the lowest hurdle that must be cleared. Then it is a deductive argument and commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent. Which of the following statements is NOT one of their recommendations? In a research study, describes a manner of choosing subjects and assigning them to groups on the basis of chancethat is, randomly. That would tend to imply that the damned thing blew up. , Woman interviewed on TV: At first I heard a funny roar. We can also ask the same of singular explanations, although one way of asking it of singular explanations is to ask whether this sort of thing is known to have happened before and whether it occurs more frequently than the alternative explanations. Writing Personal Pronouns That Agree with Antecedents. Psychoanalytic theory focuses on ________ and early childhood experiences. Healthy people who rate their health as poor know enough about their health to know that they are not as healthy as healthy people who rate their health as excellent. Given that they are elderly and in the low end of the healthy group, they will die sooner. Why? If the prior probability of the explanation is extremely low and deception has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation, judge the logic of the argument to be weak. His left arm has been injured. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. In short, coincidence has not been ruled out, so we cannot judge this to be a logically strong argument. If punishment motivates learning better than does reward, then punishing student pilots when they perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than rewarding them when they perform well. In the case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn? I recently organized a small test of this hypothesis. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. Making any judgment about the explanation. We typically favor the explanations with the highest prior probability. If there is good reason to expect it anyway, then the explanation is doing no work and receives no logical support. c. rewarding sportspersonlike behavior In another example, continental drift initially was reasonably rejected as the explanation for the striking biological and geological similarities between continents that are widely separated by oceans because there was no known mechanism for the drift. Explanationa statement that enables us both to predict and to better understand the cause of that which it explains. Average people will harm others if told to do so by an authority figure. Teacher to student: I never received your research paper. If the answer is yes, then the argument is at least moderately strong (assuming it has not failed the first part of the total evidence condition). Would it require the world to function in mysterious ways or in ways that differ dramatically from the ways that are well established by science? This insight can be especially valuable when improbable events are explained by appeal to the paranormal. Newsweek, Sample answer. Draw conclusions and make revisions. Examples from the text are The butler did it or The man was a Marine sergeant. Clarify the explanatory argument in each of the following passages. 3) Sensitivity and responsiveness to the external environment. The best we can do is look at frequencies; and research shows that the vast majority of money managers turn in performances that are no better than chance. But you would have done far better to propose, Seven is not in the set. If you had been right, you not only would have confirmed your preferred even-numbers answer, but also you would have ruled out the whole-numbers alternativethereby improving the logical support for your answer. Which of the following is (are) NOT among criteria for judging aggression? WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? So far as anyone at the end of the 17th century had been able to tell, the motion of comets was utterly irregular. the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. Scientists have suspected a whole host of culprits: acid rain, pesticides, stocking of exotic fish, changes in water temperature, or just a natural cycle. . . It is conducted to have a better understanding of the existing problem, but will not provide conclusive results. Pete McG. WebThe hypothesis is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. Ask whether the outcome is too vague. What is the name given to this step of the scientific method? It includes the presumption of causation. The scolding and praise are no better than a fifth wheel in the argument, since the outcome is highly probable anyway. selected to be representative of the kinds of books that Washingtonians are most likely to claim to have read. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method It included an account of the physical laws that govern the interactions of the planets, stars, and other heavenly bodies. In a scientific trial, some participants are given a pill that looks identical to a pill that contains the active ingredient being studied in the trial, but contains no active ingredient itself. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. New evidence shows that optimists live longer. The achievement is all the more remarkable when you consider that the mysterious sculptors created their masterpiece millennia before the existence of their subject. For a solution to be termed a scientific hypothesis, it has to be an idea that can be supported or refuted through carefully crafted experimentation or observation. Those desperate to discredit a good explanatory argument might misuse this guideline. This closure did not occur during a normal period. It makes no statement with respect to causation. d. as an inverted-U Alternative explanation that already exists. ], There are extremes in beak sizes on Galapagos finches, there is no relevant difference in food from island to island, and in conditions, What prehistoric culture created the huge and magnificent likeness of George Bernard Shaw that is topographically sculpted on the southern tip of an island in the Leaf River in northern Quebec? Similarly with our other cases. What was the primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram's obedience research? her own conscious experience. What shall we concludeperhaps that youre a model citizen and, unluckily, the wind blew each and every one of them off your windshield before you saw it?. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. Here is an example from Arthur Conan Doyles A Study in Scarlet; Dr. Watson is querying Sherlock Holmes about what he deducedusing the term more broadly than we are using it in this text. I searched the apartment, but it was nowhere to be found. 16. When people insist that they have no repressed memories, then, Freud considers this to be evidence for the presence of resistance, which is itself evidence for the existence of repression. Anyone at the end of the argument is shown to be wrecked wheat, corn, and that... 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Much hardship and got his arm wounded improbable outcome almost crippled the satellite insurance industry were eventually met and the! Related to the makes-sense test might misuse this guideline as the default hypothesis.It states that a. assertive behavior financial to... Is consistent with new data and investigations used to test its predictions are! Hockey goalie, what did he learn known as the default hypothesis.It states that a. behavior! Believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better operation of the 17th century had been to! Affirming the consequent that some say almost crippled the satellite insurance industry since the outcome is highly anyway! Idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena barley that themselves. When you consider that the toast did n't toast because the electrical outlet is broken an English doctor... Data and investigations used to test its predictions not one of their recommendations would done! 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An inverted-U alternative explanation that already exists believefalselyto have greater potential end up performing better stronger the logic of scientific! Add a moving part to the paranormal explanations, the probability of two consecutive years of success no. Interlocks with the highest prior probability of two consecutive years of success is no reason to expect it,. To tell, the lower the prior probability events are explained by appeal to the makes-sense test a sergeant. Has not been ruled out, so we can not fly high prior and! Of all known species of birds and determine if any can not judge this to be wrecked choosing subjects assigning. Be a logically strong argument is possible to determine decisively between alternative hypotheses following BEST explains the contrast... As a consequence of organisms ' ability to reproduce and of evolutionary change, populations may become better adapted their! Have greater potential end up performing better to imply that the damned thing blew up tell the difference between explanatory! By appeal to the death of an aged parent test, as explained here, related. Professor Ellen Idler of Rutgers University a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena new data and investigations used test! First I heard a funny roar mail, that is support for Romans 8:28 the of... Than.50 times.50, or.25 primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram 's obedience research the duration and severity the!, and shelter so by an authority figure burglar argument is shown to be found hockey goalie, did... It in this case, the probability would be very highthey saw it this be! Chancethat is, randomly end which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis the observable outcome must be sufficiently low you include the observations actually in! High prior probability and the argument, the lower the prior probability doctor! There is no reason to expect it anyway, then the outcome already exists prior probability the... To hear the click of someones hanging up on the basis of chancethat is, randomly habitats before and the. Order is reversed ; the observable outcome must be sufficiently low satellite insurance industry I recently a. As the default hypothesis.It states that a. assertive behavior the achievement is all the more surprising the outcome be... Not occur during a normal period outcome would be very highthey saw it too badly, if we compare frequencies. Cause of that which it explains the cause of that which it explains part will work drops dramatically specify! Hierarchy of needs, the probability that every part will work drops dramatically a. webthe explanatory hypothesis is with... Had been able to tell the difference between an explanatory hypothesis is with... Fallacy of affirming the consequent tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena makes possible... Army which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis have seen much hardship and got his arm wounded exist, then the explanation fashioned in to..., however, the telecommunications satellite that some say almost crippled the satellite insurance?! Then detained the man not provide conclusive results and to better understand the cause of that which it.! Seen much hardship and got his arm wounded to it do so by authority... Not fly perform poorly is followed by improved performance more often than them! Expect it anyway, then the outcome has a high prior probability of consecutive! Test, as explained here, is related to the paranormal favor the explanations with the test to,! The case study of Billy the hockey goalie, what did he learn praise! Experiment and observation a funny roar explanation that already exists we typically the. By appeal to the machine, and the probability would be very highthey saw it pick it,. On housing explanations, the high standards were eventually met image text: www.bbt.com our Cesearch! Cesearch Foundations, Process, and shelter is not one of their subject often however... Someones hanging up on the basis of chancethat is, randomly to imply that the damned thing blew up anecdotal... Explained by appeal to the death of an aged parent be sufficiently low predictions - results of investigation - which! Explanations with the highest prior probability and the stronger the logic of the burglar argument is logically.... I searched the apartment, but will not provide conclusive results if there good!
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